As one journeys into a quaint village nestled in the South Wales Valleys, a road gently winds upwards, flanked by rows of terraced houses on the valley slopes. A plethora of political campaign signs adorn the area, featuring predominantly light blue boards from Reform UK and green and yellow ones from Plaid Cymru. In contrast to the traditional red boards of Labour, which has historically dominated the Caerphilly constituency, few are visible as the Senedd by-election approaches following the passing of Hefin David MS.
By-elections are known for their unpredictable nature, and all eyes are on Abertridwr as voters gear up for the polls on October 23. Observers both in Wales and across the UK are closely monitoring the strength of Labour’s support in this erstwhile stronghold and its implications for the upcoming Senedd election and the future of Keir Starmer.
Tensions escalated in the Senedd this week when Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan criticized Reform for stoking division by focusing on immigration in an area with one of the lowest percentages of foreign-born residents in Wales. Only 2.9% of the population in Abertridwr were born outside the UK, as per the latest census data.
Reform’s campaign has sparked controversy by targeting the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary initiative, which allocated £55 million over six years to assist Ukrainian refugees settling in Wales amidst their country’s turmoil. Both Morgan and Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth have condemned Reform for misrepresenting the program and sowing discord.
Despite the strong criticism from Plaid and Labour, some Abertridwr residents feel unfairly labeled as racist for expressing concerns about immigration. They believe that Labour and Plaid are actually fostering division by attacking Reform.
One local resident, Jackie, who previously supported Plaid and is a Welsh speaker, shared her experiences of facing backlash for backing Reform. She highlighted feeling marginalized and accused local councillors of censoring her posts about Reform’s immigration stance in community groups.
While immigration has taken center stage in the election discourse, other pressing issues like local amenities, living costs, and community needs are also influencing voters. Residents like Joanne and Jackie were drawn to Reform not solely for its immigration policies but also for its manifesto commitment to raise the income tax threshold.
As the political landscape in Caerphilly heats up with Reform’s Llyr Powell and Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle poised for a potential showdown, the upcoming by-election is expected to be a closely contested affair. The outcome will not only determine the seat holder but also provide insights into public sentiments and effective messaging leading up to the Senedd election next year.