Ukraine is banking on Russian forces once again overextending themselves without support, a pattern seen repeatedly in the ongoing conflict. Prior to the 2022 invasion, Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas region were well aware of their orders as they prepared for the anticipated Russian assault.
Facing superior numbers and limited resources, the Ukrainian troops understood the need to fight strategically. They were instructed to hold their ground, but if overwhelmed, to allow the Russian forces to advance before executing a flanking maneuver to counter them. One soldier succinctly put it: “We must let them enter and then surround and eliminate them.”
This tactic has proven effective in many instances, as Russia once again finds itself pushing too far, prematurely celebrating successes. Reports indicate Russian troops making gains in Pokrovsk, with possibly hundreds already inside the contested city.
While capturing Pokrovsk could establish a crucial logistical base for further advances into Ukraine, Russia’s progress has been sluggish overall within the broader scope of the conflict. Hindered by corruption and disrupted supply chains targeted by Ukrainian drones, Russian forces have managed to enter Pokrovsk, but Ukrainian troops have consistently demonstrated their ability to outmaneuver and push back the invaders.
The Russian plan to reinforce its presence in Ukraine has hit obstacles, particularly in economically disadvantaged and remote areas like the Republic of Sakha, according to Ukrainian intelligence sources. The dire conditions, low pay, and poor prospects have led many eligible men to evade conscription rather than enlist in the military.
Ukrainian intelligence assessments reveal that recruitment centers in certain regions are falling short of Moscow’s recruitment targets by approximately 40%. This shortfall reflects growing discontent among locals and increasing weariness from the prolonged conflict, now in its fourth year.
Throughout the war, Ukraine has displayed resilience against the ineffective and clumsy Russian military. Last week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reaffirmed the United Kingdom’s steadfast support for Kyiv in defending against Russia’s invasion marked by war crimes and atrocities.
Adapting adeptly to the evolving conditions of the conflict, Ukraine has effectively utilized advanced drones and developed new missile capabilities when necessary. The inability of Russian commanders to convey the reality to President Putin, that their advancements often hold little significance and are frequently reversed within days, may prove to be their downfall.