Keir Starmer’s strategy to challenge Nigel Farage involves enhancing a repatriation agreement with France and reducing small boat crossings by 75%, as per a recent report. Former Labour Home Secretary Charles Clarke has urged ministers to consider a practical and compassionate approach. Recent polling suggests that nearly half of voters would back allowing up to 50,000 asylum seekers into the UK under a ‘one in, one out deal.’
Starmer is moving forward with a pact made with French President Emmanuel Macron, where small boat arrivals will be sent back in exchange for individuals with valid asylum claims. Initially limited to 50 returns per week, this number is expected to increase substantially, according to British Future. The Home Office has indicated that the first returns are imminent, but faced a setback when the High Court temporarily halted one of the initial planned deportations.
A report by British Future think-tank proposes scaling up the intake of refugees across the Channel to possibly 50,000 in a controlled manner, which could garner public support if incorporated into a new agreement where France agrees to take back unauthorized crossers. The report suggests that this could be the Prime Minister’s most effective approach to significantly reduce the number of boat arrivals, drawing parallels to Joe Biden’s success in reducing illegal crossings from Mexico by 81% in a year using a similar method.
British Future’s report recommends that the Government aim to slash small boat arrivals by 75% over the next three years. It asserts that Macron would prefer collaborating with Starmer rather than facing a successor inclined towards confrontation.
Polling conducted by Ipsos among over 3,000 adults revealed that 55% support a one in, one out deal, including a majority of Reform voters, with only 15% opposing it. Even with a cap of 50,000, 48% would favor the deal, while 18% would object.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future and report co-author, emphasized the need for the new Home Secretary to adopt a proactive plan on small boats based on successful strategies. The report highlights the potential efficacy of the UK-France deal, drawing inspiration from the US experience of reducing illegal crossings through legal pathways and enhanced cooperation.
The report also condemns Farage’s proposal to repatriate refugees to authoritarian regimes like the Taliban, warning that exiting the Refugee Convention would hinder the ability to negotiate return agreements with stable governments. Katwala advocates for an orderly and humane system over populist actions that appeal to a vocal minority.
A Home Office spokesperson emphasized the government’s commitment to combatting immigration system abuse through collaboration with international partners. The UK-France Treaty is facilitating the detention and return of individuals arriving in small boats, with the first returns under the ‘one in, one out’ pilot scheme set to commence soon.
On Tuesday, the High Court issued an interim order preventing the return of an Eritrean man to France. Technology Secretary Liz Kendall expressed disappointment at the decision but affirmed that it would not impede the overall implementation of the deal.