Australian scientists have developed a groundbreaking online tool to evaluate the climate impact of fossil fuel projects, with a Canadian offshore oil venture as the initial case study. Known as the Carbon Impacts Tracer, the tool can predict how proposed mining operations, offshore oil rigs, or other energy endeavors will contribute to global warming, glacier melting, and potential human fatalities.
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, highlighted during a virtual press briefing that the tool can link the emissions from individual fossil fuel ventures to their specific global warming effects and subsequent impacts. By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data from project proposals, the tool calculates the projected increase in global temperatures and then estimates the real-world repercussions, such as coral reef degradation, reduced food production, and job losses.
Launched recently, the online platform features case studies on several Australian projects, one in the U.K., and the Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Canada. Spearheaded by Equinor, a Norwegian energy company, the Bay du Nord project is anticipated to tap into over 430 million barrels of oil reserves. The tool suggests that the project could emit 188 megatonnes of CO2 over 20 years, resulting in a minimal temperature rise of 0.00008 degrees Celsius globally.
Furthermore, the Carbon Impacts Tracer indicates that the project’s emissions could expose an additional 111,000 individuals to extreme heat and lead to 25 heat-related fatalities in Europe alone. It also forecasts a potential glacier loss of 4.6 square kilometers, causing a sea level rise of 0.025 millimeters. The tool predicts around 2,100 job losses due to pollution from the project, pushing nearly 9,800 people into extreme poverty.
While Equinor has not yet commented on the findings, Joel Finnis, a climatologist at Memorial University, emphasized the tool’s utility in consolidating research findings for public comprehension. Finnis stated that the tracer debunks arguments favoring new oil ventures by highlighting the severe consequences, such as loss of life, financial burdens, and environmental degradation, even from seemingly minor projects.
Maria Nawaz, leading the climate change accountability project at the University of New South Wales, pointed out the historical challenge of connecting fossil fuel ventures to their tangible impacts. She expressed optimism that the Carbon Impacts Tracer could empower governments, regulators, and the public to assess the implications of proposed projects effectively, potentially bolstering climate-related legal actions.
Nawaz also suggested that insurers could leverage the tool to evaluate project risks, while economists could utilize it to forecast economic consequences. Notably, the tool currently assesses only forthcoming projects and plans to incorporate additional developments as data becomes accessible.