Health officials in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing anonymized mobile-phone data to track population movements and pinpoint potential areas where the Ebola virus could spread next, as stated by the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
This innovative approach, a first in Ebola response efforts, is being employed amidst the challenges faced in containing what the WHO has labeled as the most rapidly escalating Ebola outbreak on record. With confirmed cases in six provinces and over 6,250 individuals infected, resulting in 3,039 deaths since the outbreak declaration on May 15, according to the latest government figures.
The current outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is attributed to the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are no approved vaccines or treatments.
As the virus continues to spread, health officials are seeking ways to predict potential outbreak areas and allocate surveillance and response resources efficiently.
Olivier Le Polain, the head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of population movements in outbreaks, particularly in the ongoing epidemic.
Traditional risk assessments typically focus on outbreak hotspots and assume the virus will spread to nearby regions. By analyzing mobility data, responders can identify risks in distant but interconnected areas due to travel patterns.
The analysis is conducted by Swedish non-profit Flowminder, utilizing anonymized records generated when mobile phone users connect to telecommunications networks. These records reveal travel patterns as individuals move across the country.
Vodacom, the largest telecom operator in Congo, provides this data free of charge. Flowminder assures that the data received is aggregated and anonymized, with no access to personally identifying information.
Flowminder’s initial analysis concentrated on areas believed to be the outbreak origin: Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara, tracking travel patterns between April 3 and April 23. The data showed significant travel flows to nearby areas in Ituri province and North Kivu province, with all top 10 destinations reporting confirmed Ebola cases by the end of June.
Expanding the analysis as the virus spread, Flowminder identified Kisangani, a crucial transport hub connecting eastern and western Congo, as a high-risk location. Further studies revealed connections between Kisangani and Kinshasa, as well as settlements along the Congo River and near borders with Central African Republic and South Sudan, emphasizing potential spread risks.
The WHO continues to emphasize the risk of the outbreak reaching Kinshasa and neighboring countries, with modeling exercises projecting a high probability of cases in Kinshasa by the end of September.
However, the analysis’s limitation lies in utilizing data from Congolese mobile networks, offering only a partial view of cross-border movements. Efforts are underway to collaborate with other operators to enhance coverage and obtain more comprehensive data.