A recent peer-reviewed study highlights the overlooked risk that cocoa production faces from heavy rainfall, rather than just heat and drought. The study, conducted by Anna Lea Albright at Harvard University, reveals that extreme rainfall poses a significant threat to cocoa cultivation. This has become a pressing issue as cocoa prices have surged in recent years, currently hovering around $6,000 US per tonne, up from $2,000 to $3,000 US per tonne in previous years.
The spike in cocoa prices was triggered by various factors, including heavy flooding in West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa-growing region with over two million farmers. Leslie Agyare, the founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, emphasized the challenges brought by excessive rainfall this year, affecting crop management and harvesting.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focused on Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer globally. It found that extreme rainfall during flowering stages significantly limits cocoa yields more than temperature fluctuations. Excessive rain can damage delicate cocoa flowers and lead to fungal infections like black pod disease, impacting yields in countries like Ecuador and Indonesia as well.
The researchers also noted a clear climate signal, indicating that warmer air holds more moisture, leading to intensified rainfall during the wet season. Although El Niño typically reduces extreme rainfall risks in West Africa, it raises concerns of drought, leaving farmers with inadequate water supply during critical growth stages.
Apart from climate-related risks, the study also underlines non-climactic threats to cocoa production, such as aging trees and illegal activities like gold mining. To address these challenges, potential interventions involving fungicide application and improved drainage systems were suggested to mitigate the spread of diseases and enhance crop resilience.
Despite the grim outlook, experts are exploring solutions to sustain cocoa farming in the face of changing climate conditions. Infrastructure investments, improved post-harvest practices, and collective processing methods were proposed to alleviate the burdens on cocoa farmers and enhance productivity. However, the future of cocoa farming in West Africa remains uncertain, with experts warning of declining interest among smallholder farmers and the emergence of cocoa-free alternatives in the chocolate industry. Major companies like Nestlé have already ventured into cocoa-free chocolate production, signaling a potential shift in the market towards more sustainable and resilient supply chains.