Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the initial half of 2026, with total trade increasing by 3.6% compared to the previous year, as per data from Statistics Canada scrutinized by researchers. The findings, featured in a recent report released by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, seem to mirror the renewed interaction between the two nations. This effort is part of Canada’s strategy to broaden its economic base amidst strained relations with the U.S.
During the first half of 2026, the overall trade in goods between Canada and China amounted to $66.6 billion, up by 3.6%. Notably, exports saw a substantial 30% rise to $21.74 billion year-on-year. The sectors of energy and minerals held a dominant position, constituting 58.4% of all domestic exports to China during this period. Particularly, energy exports, encompassing crude oil and liquefied propane, experienced a noteworthy growth of 81.8%. Additionally, exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, including copper ore, surged by 29%.
“This marks a record high for our first-half exports to China,” remarked Bijan Ahmadi, the executive director of the Canada China Business Council. Despite historical trade ties between the two countries, the recent upsurge is likely influenced by a combination of factors.
The warming diplomatic and economic relations between Canada and China, following years of tensions triggered by events like the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018, are contributing to the increased trade activity. Moreover, amid escalating trade conflicts with the U.S., Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized Canada’s intent to forge new trade partnerships and reduce reliance on its American neighbor.
The utilization of the Trans Mountain Pipeline at 97% capacity in June, which substantially enhances Asia’s access to Western Canadian crude oil, is also supporting the surge in oil exports. Furthermore, disruptions in oil shipments due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, leading to higher oil prices, have prompted customers to turn to reliable producers like Canada.
The trade dynamics in the first half of 2026 underscore a significant shift in bilateral relations, with agreements between Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping facilitating market access for Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for tariff concessions on Canadian agricultural products. This deal has positively impacted Canadian farmers, contributing to a rebound in canola seed prices.
Alberta and British Columbia have witnessed notable export gains, particularly in energy, minerals, forestry, and agriculture sectors. Although overall trade has seen an uptick, import figures reveal a 5.8% decline year-on-year, partly influenced by the relocation of certain manufacturing activities from China to other countries like Vietnam.
In conclusion, while the report acknowledges modest improvements in agricultural performance, it emphasizes the need for diversification and strengthening of trade relations. The outlook remains optimistic, with prospects for enhanced engagement with the Asia-Pacific region, especially with China offering substantial market opportunities. The data from the latter half of the year will provide a comprehensive perspective, but the initial trends suggest that Canada is on a promising trajectory towards achieving its export targets with China.